By Jaime Bravo
Brenna Fisher, a partner of mine in this blog, wrote today an article speaking about the possibility of reducing government spending and why it was necessary. Here is her take. After reading it - and I must say that I have been reading about austerity in Europe and in the US for a long time - I cannot agree with her thoughts. Austerity, as we know it in Europe and specially in Spain, has been intellectually defeated. Austerity has been widely used only for ideological and political purposes, that is, the implementation of austerity is good, but only if you are rich - which is exactly what Mark Blyth said a few days ago on The Guardian. So, if austerity has been defeated, why do we still support it in some ways? Because it keeps our political aims alive. Make no mistake, I really respect Brenna's work. I enjoyed her last article on music and recessions and I share my thoughts with her on Twitter - see here. It is just there are some failures on economic assumptions that we still consider as facts. It is not Brenna's problem, it is a problem of economic thought.
Do not follow the European path
Europe is one of the most complex economic experiments of all time. It is not my aim to write about it here but we have to work on a few facts. First, Europe is driving himself into a liquidity trap. I have worked widely on it - you can read my work here; it is in Spanish though. Mario Draghi said a few weeks ago that the ECB is going to low the interest rates at 0,30%. But Europe has a particularity: members have not the control of their own currency; the US does. So it means that, devaluation is easier in the US than in Europe. Then, you cannot make a proper analysis withouth considering the job the ECB does. You have to assume that the ECB has not the same ideas than the FED: Janet Yellen is an economist who knows how to drive the economic scenario of the US while Draghi is limited by Germany. Austerity has been already used. And it had many effects on the economy. Let's take a look at the next graph, which shows a correlation between austerity and growth in many countries:
Brenna Fisher, a partner of mine in this blog, wrote today an article speaking about the possibility of reducing government spending and why it was necessary. Here is her take. After reading it - and I must say that I have been reading about austerity in Europe and in the US for a long time - I cannot agree with her thoughts. Austerity, as we know it in Europe and specially in Spain, has been intellectually defeated. Austerity has been widely used only for ideological and political purposes, that is, the implementation of austerity is good, but only if you are rich - which is exactly what Mark Blyth said a few days ago on The Guardian. So, if austerity has been defeated, why do we still support it in some ways? Because it keeps our political aims alive. Make no mistake, I really respect Brenna's work. I enjoyed her last article on music and recessions and I share my thoughts with her on Twitter - see here. It is just there are some failures on economic assumptions that we still consider as facts. It is not Brenna's problem, it is a problem of economic thought.
Do not follow the European path
Europe is one of the most complex economic experiments of all time. It is not my aim to write about it here but we have to work on a few facts. First, Europe is driving himself into a liquidity trap. I have worked widely on it - you can read my work here; it is in Spanish though. Mario Draghi said a few weeks ago that the ECB is going to low the interest rates at 0,30%. But Europe has a particularity: members have not the control of their own currency; the US does. So it means that, devaluation is easier in the US than in Europe. Then, you cannot make a proper analysis withouth considering the job the ECB does. You have to assume that the ECB has not the same ideas than the FED: Janet Yellen is an economist who knows how to drive the economic scenario of the US while Draghi is limited by Germany. Austerity has been already used. And it had many effects on the economy. Let's take a look at the next graph, which shows a correlation between austerity and growth in many countries: